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Featured supplement: MEMTAB 2018 Symposium conference abstracts

Methods for Evaluation of medical prediction Models, Tests AndBiomarkers (MEMTAB) 2018 Symposium 2-3 July 2018 , Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Stimulating dialogue aiming to tackle the methodological and practical complexities facing the diagnostic, prognostic, screening and monitoring field today, the conference abstracts for this international symposium have been published in

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Methods for Evaluation of medical prediction Models, Tests And Biomarkers (MEMTAB) 2018 Symposium


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Ruling out pulmonary embolism across different subgroups of patients and healthcare settings: protocol for a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA)

Authors: G.-J. Geersing, N. Kraaijpoel, H. R. Büller, S. van Doorn, N. van Es, G. Le Gal, M. V. Huisman, C. Kearon, J. A. Kline, K. G. M. Moons, M. Miniati, M. Righini, P.-M. Roy, S. J. van der Wall, P. S. Wells and F. A. Klok

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Evaluating the impact of prediction models: lessons learned, challenges, and recommendations

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Posted by Ben Carlson

The following is one of my favorite running stats on the stock market:

Over the years I’ve noticed that whenever these types of long-term numbers are presented there tend to be two extreme responses:

There is some truth in each of these statements, but as with most things the historical data is never black or white, but a shade of gray. The future is uncertain, so investors should always think in terms of probabilities, never guarantees. What this data tells me is that the longer your time horizon, the higher your probability of seeing a gain in the stock market.

Does this mean that you’re guaranteed to earn a certain level of returns in stocks if you hold them for a specfied time frame? No.

Will these same results be guaranteed to repeat themselves in the future? No.

Has anyone figured out a better way of compounding your money in stocks beyond increasing your holding period? Not many.

Are there investors out there who actually have twenty year time horizons? Absolutely — Millennials just starting out in their career, middle-aged workers playing catch-up with their retirement savings and even retirees who will likely have 2-3 more decades to invest during their retirement years. The difference in each case comes down to how much each of these investors should hold in stocks and what their needs are in the meantime.

I like to think that every single retirement contribution has it’s own twenty or thirty year time horizon.

The usual caveats apply here — these numbers are before inflation, taxes or costs are taken into account (although one of the biggest benefits about a longer holding period is that you can reduce the impact of trading costs and taxes on your portfolio). With that disclaimer out of the way, here are a few more interesting long-term stock market stats I found while computing these numbers:

Further Reading: What Constitutes Long-Term in the Stock Market?

Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms Conditions page for a full disclaimer.

Now go talk about it.

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[…] Source: Playing the Probabilities – A Wealth of Common SenseA Wealth of Common Sense […]

[…] •The Discovery of Statistical Regression (Pricenomics)see alsoPlaying the Probabilities (Wealth of Common Sense) •The Uberization of Money (WSJ) •Human Cost Rises as Old Bridges, Dams and Roads Go […]

Nice post, thanks Ben. One of the remarkable things from reviewing the historical data is that variance of equities is lower than that of bonds (and incredibly low as you pointed out) when the time horizon is expanded (remembering a chart from Jeremy Siegel’s book) due to the mean reverting nature of equities. The hard part I would think is knowing how to reallocate as one moves closer to retirement/withdrawals.

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